Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK

Home values #

Typical home $314,310 (Sep 2026), +5.4% over one year, +7.5% over five

• 73rd pct · 824th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 8th pct · 12th of 13 Alaska counties · median $383,220
• counties in the Fairbanks-College metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Fairbanks-College metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,839/mo (Sep 2026), +4.7% over one year; price-to-rent 14.2

• 75th pct · 340th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 25th pct · 4th of 5 Alaska counties · median $1,866
• counties in the Fairbanks-College metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Fairbanks-College metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,741 a month on $314,310 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $6,210 a month: 28.0% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $314,310 × 80% = $251,448, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,741/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,433 × 52 / 12 = $6,210) = 28% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $314,310 / ($1,433 × 52) = 4.2
• price-to-rent = $314,310 / ($1,839 × 12) = 14.2

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

35,985 jobs at 2,497 employers (2026 Q1); -1.5% jobs and +4.6% average weekly wage over the year

• 79th pct · 648th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 96th pct · 2nd of 30 Alaska counties · median 2,486
• counties in the Fairbanks-College metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Fairbanks-College metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

1 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 1, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

14 gauges · 0 flooding · 2 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 1 stale

Sites found: 14, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

24 wells in 2 named aquifers: Other aquifers, Alaska unconsolidated-deposit aquifers

Sites found: 24, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.00)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$2.1 bn in deposits at 17 offices of 6 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,936, highly concentrated. $1.2 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $503.2 m, contracts $415.3 m), $33,573 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,936 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 23.7² + 23.0² + 20.6² + … (3 more) = 1,936

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $33,573 per covered job, against 35,985 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $1.2 bn / 35,985 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $33,573

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK: 15 findings, 5 at a watch level and 10 noted

1. watchFairbanks North Star Borough, AK's covered employment is -1.5% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -1.5 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

2. watchFairbanks North Star Borough, AK's typical home value of $314,310 scores 73 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 8 across Alaska counties, a gap of 65 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 65 = |73 across US counties - 8 across Alaska counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

3. watchFairbanks North Star Borough, AK's typical asking rent of $1,839 scores 75 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 25 across Alaska counties, a gap of 50 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 50 = |75 across US counties - 25 across Alaska counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

4. watchFairbanks North Star Borough, AK's years of wages of 4.2 scores 50 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 17 across Alaska counties, a gap of 33 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 33 = |50 across US counties - 17 across Alaska counties|
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

5. watchFairbanks North Star Borough, AK's covered employment of -1.5% scores 29 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 60 across Alaska counties, a gap of 31 points.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 31 = |29 across US counties - 60 across Alaska counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.