Lonoke County, AR

Home values #

Typical home $230,061 (Sep 2026), +4.7% over one year, +24.2% over five

• 49th pct · 1,537th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 84th pct · 12th of 74 Arkansas counties · median $165,493
• 60th pct · 3rd of 6 counties in the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro · median $222,204

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,351/mo (Sep 2026), +2.9% over one year; price-to-rent 14.2

• 35th pct · 874th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 82nd pct · 4th of 18 Arkansas counties · median $1,178
• counties in the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro: only 4 of counties in the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro published this metric; fewer than 5 is too few to rank

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,274 a month on $230,061 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $3,623 a month: 35.2% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $230,061 × 80% = $184,049, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,274/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $836 × 52 / 12 = $3,623) = 35% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $230,061 / ($836 × 52) = 5.3
• price-to-rent = $230,061 / ($1,351 × 12) = 14.2

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

15,807 jobs at 1,491 employers (2026 Q1); -0.9% jobs and +1.2% average weekly wage over the year

• 65th pct · 1,097th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 77th pct · 18th of 75 Arkansas counties · median 5,609
• 40th pct · 4th of 6 counties in the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro · median 22,110

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D3 extreme drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

62 gauges · 0 flooding · 8 with quality panels averaging 96 % · 23 stale

Sites found: 62, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

1 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 1, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.49)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.75 + 0.2×0.04 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.7 bn in deposits at 29 offices of 13 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,283, moderately concentrated. $572.1 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $519.8 m, grants $27.2 m), $36,195 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,283 across 13 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 13 banks with deposits in the county = 24.3² + 13.4² + 12.2² + … (10 more) = 1,283

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $36,195 per covered job, against 15,807 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $572.1 m / 15,807 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $36,195

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Lonoke County, AR: 14 findings, 3 at a watch level and 11 noted

1. watchLonoke County, AR's covered employment is -0.9% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.9 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

2. watchLonoke County, AR's typical asking rent of $1,351 scores 36 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 82 across Arkansas counties, a gap of 47 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 47 = |36 across US counties - 82 across Arkansas counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

3. watchLonoke County, AR's typical home value of $230,061 scores 50 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 85 across Arkansas counties, a gap of 35 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 35 = |50 across US counties - 85 across Arkansas counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

4. noteLonoke County, AR's average weekly wage was 1.2% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +1.2 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

5. noteLonoke County, AR's covered employment was 0.9% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -0.9 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.