San Francisco County, CA

Home values #

Typical home $1.4 m (Sep 2026), +15.5% over one year, +3.3% over five

• 99th pct · 9th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 94th pct · 4th of 58 California counties · median $494,569
• 50th pct · 3rd of 5 counties in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro · median $1,441,170

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $4,784/mo (Sep 2026), +26.4% over one year; price-to-rent 25.1

• 99th pct · 2nd of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 100th pct · 1st of 48 California counties · median $2,448
• 100th pct · 1st of 5 counties in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro · median $3,865

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $7,983 a month on $1,441,170 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $17,546 a month: 45.5% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $1.4 m × 80% = $1.2 m, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $7,983/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $4,049 × 52 / 12 = $17,546) = 45% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $1.4 m / ($4,049 × 52) = 6.8
• price-to-rent = $1.4 m / ($4,784 × 12) = 25.1

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

704,926 jobs at 70,863 employers (2026 Q1); +1.0% jobs and -9.5% average weekly wage over the year

• 98th pct · 35th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 85th pct · 9th of 58 California counties · median 74,865
• 75th pct · 2nd of 5 counties in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro · median 413,139

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

1 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 1, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

288 gauges · 0 flooding · 58 with quality panels averaging 76 % · 37 stale

Sites found: 288, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

5 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 5, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.09)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.24 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$338.3 bn in deposits at 195 offices of 46 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 4,554, highly concentrated. $7.1 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $4.4 bn, contracts $1.5 bn), $10,128 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 4,554 across 41 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 41 banks with deposits in the county = 65.4² + 14.6² + 6.2² + … (38 more) = 4,554

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $10,128 per covered job, against 704,926 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $7.1 bn / 704,926 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $10,128

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

Public companies #

1 public company files with the SEC from a business address here (Prologis, Inc.). These rows are a committed fixture, not a pull: the snapshot has never been refreshed, so every financial fact is null and the list is not a complete census of filers in this county. The county's jobs mix maps to 10 GICS sectors, led by Communication Services.

This is a committed fixture, not a pull: 1 filers are named and their financial facts are empty until the snapshot is refreshed. An absent company is not evidence that none is headquartered here.

Public filers whose registered business address with the SEC falls in this county, from a committed snapshot of EDGAR's company_tickers_exchange file. A position is the centroid of the address's ZIP code (Census ZCTA) or, where the snapshot says so, of its city: it is not a building. Legal entities only - no officer, insider or shareholder data is read, and Forms 3, 4 and 5 are excluded everywhere. Sector exposure is the county's BLS QCEW jobs mix bridged to GICS sectors by a convention documented in lib/companies/sectors.ts; a jobs mix is not a portfolio.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

San Francisco County, CA: 25 findings, 6 at a watch level and 19 noted

1. watchSan Francisco County, CA's typical asking rent is +26.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical asking rent at least 8 percent above a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZORI; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: rent.yoyPct = 26.406627421397346 >= 8

   arithmetic on Zillow ZORI; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchSan Francisco County, CA's average weekly wage is -9.5% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -9.5 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

3. watchSan Francisco County, CA's price-to-rent ratio of 25.1 ranks 90th of 1,358 US counties, a watch level here: price-to-rent in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: priceToRent percentile = 93.44141488577745 >= 90
   • typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month

   position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level

4. watchSan Francisco County, CA's typical home value is +15.5% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value at least 15 percent above a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = 15.532481224373814 >= 15

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

5. watchSan Francisco County, CA's price-to-rent ratio is 25.1, a watch level here: typical home value worth 25 or more years of typical rent (typical home value / (typical rent × 12), Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: priceToRent = 25.101863444691155 >= 25
   • typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month

   typical home value / (typical rent × 12), Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.