Lake County, MT

Home values #

Typical home $595,594 (Sep 2026), +2.4% over one year, +25.0% over five

• 96th pct · 114th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 90th pct · 6th of 56 Montana counties · median $286,409

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,633/mo (Sep 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 30.4

• 60th pct · 535th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 55th pct · 5th of 10 Montana counties · median $1,628

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $3,299 a month on $595,594 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,537 a month: 72.7% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $595,594 × 80% = $476,475, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $3,299/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,047 × 52 / 12 = $4,537) = 73% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $595,594 / ($1,047 × 52) = 10.9
• price-to-rent = $595,594 / ($1,633 × 12) = 30.4

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

9,699 jobs at 1,333 employers (2026 Q1); +1.8% jobs and -1.4% average weekly wage over the year

• 54th pct · 1,462nd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 85th pct · 9th of 56 Montana counties · median 2,560

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

1 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 1, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

19 gauges · 0 flooding · 2 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 11 stale

Sites found: 19, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

10 wells in 1 named aquifer: Alluvial aquifers

Sites found: 10, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.00)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$867.6 m in deposits at 10 offices of 5 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,745, highly concentrated. $576.0 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $284.8 m, contracts $207.8 m), $59,386 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,745 across 5 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 5 banks with deposits in the county = 40.9² + 19.3² + 18.9² + … (2 more) = 2,745

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $59,386 per covered job, against 9,699 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $576.0 m / 9,699 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $59,386

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Lake County, MT: 14 findings, 7 at a watch level and 7 noted

1. watchLake County, MT's price-to-rent ratio of 30.4 ranks 18th of 1,358 US counties, a watch level here: price-to-rent in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: priceToRent percentile = 98.74723655121592 >= 90
   • typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month

   position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level

2. watchLake County, MT's years of wages of 10.9 ranks 54th of 3,063 US counties, a watch level here: years of wages in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: yearsOfWages percentile = 98.26910516002613 >= 90
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level

3. watchLake County, MT's price-to-rent ratio is 30.4, a watch level here: typical home value worth 25 or more years of typical rent (typical home value / (typical rent × 12), Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: priceToRent = 30.39432434011342 >= 25
   • typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month

   typical home value / (typical rent × 12), Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

4. watchLake County, MT's average weekly wage is -1.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -1.4 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

5. watchLake County, MT's years of wages is 10.9, a watch level here: typical home value worth 10 or more years of one average covered wage (typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52), one average covered job rather than a household; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: yearsOfWages = 10.939564895677522 >= 10
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52), one average covered job rather than a household; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.