Warren County, TN
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 35.68, -85.78.
Assembled 2026-10-19. Read the brief.
- 58th pct · 1,276th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 51st pct · 47th of 95 Tennessee counties · median $252,394
- 41st pct · 1,802nd of 3,062 US counties · median +2.9%
- 35th pct · 62nd of 95 Tennessee counties · median +2.9%
- 2nd pct · 1,326th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 0th pct · 46th of 46 Tennessee counties · median $1,477
- 60th pct · 1,287th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 63rd pct · 35th of 95 Tennessee counties · median 8,576
- 43rd pct · 1,811th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 43rd pct · 54th of 95 Tennessee counties · median $1,030
- 62nd pct · 1,146th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.2
- 45th pct · 52nd of 95 Tennessee counties · median 5.0
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $254,138 (Sep 2026), +2.1% over one year, +27.2% over five
- 58th pct · 1,276th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 51st pct · 47th of 95 Tennessee counties · median $252,394
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, TN | $254,138 · +2.1% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $853/mo (Sep 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 24.8
- 2nd pct · 1,326th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 0th pct · 46th of 46 Tennessee counties · median $1,477
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, TN | $853/mo · n/a 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,408 a month on $254,138 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,385 a month: 32.1% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $254,138 × 80% = $203,310, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,408/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,012 × 52 / 12 = $4,385) = 32% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $254,138 / ($1,012 × 52) = 4.8
- price-to-rent = $254,138 / ($853 × 12) = 24.8
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
12,458 jobs at 936 employers (2026 Q1); -4.4% jobs and +5.0% average weekly wage over the year
- 60th pct · 1,287th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 63rd pct · 35th of 95 Tennessee counties · median 8,576
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, TN | 12,458 jobs · $1,012/wk · -4.4% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 3,009 | $1,363 | 3.00 | +1.8% |
| Health care and social assistance | 1,504 | $1,030 | 0.80 | +28.4% |
| Retail trade | 1,491 | $649 | 1.23 | -2.9% |
| Accommodation and food services | 1,022 | $356 | 0.91 | +0.9% |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing | 573 | $789 | 6.37 | -2.7% |
| Construction | 497 | $1,196 | 0.76 | -6.6% |
| Wholesale trade | 444 | $1,308 | 0.93 | +8.6% |
| Finance and insurance | 364 | $1,620 | 0.72 | +0.0% |
| Administrative and waste services | 345 | $930 | 0.49 | -53.0% |
| Other services | 248 | $742 | 0.67 | +9.7% |
| Information | 170 | $1,420 | 0.74 | -31.2% |
| Educational services | 112 | $572 | 0.42 | +10.9% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D2 severe drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
49 gauges · 0 flooding · 9 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 26 stale
Sites found: 49, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| COLLINS RIVER NEAR MCMINNVILLE, TN | flow 74.0 ft³/s | 5 km |
| CANEY FORK NEAR ROCK ISLAND, TN | flow 372.0 ft³/s · STALE | 19 km |
| USGS-03595100 | flow 6.80 ft³/s · STALE | 35 km |
| TAYLOR CREEK NEAR CASSVILLE, TN | flow 4.10 ft³/s · STALE | 38 km |
| USGS-03596000 | flow 12.7 ft³/s | 39 km |
| CALFKILLER RIVER AT HWY 70 AT SPARTA, TN | flow 25.5 ft³/s | 39 km |
| USGS-03596075 | stage 1.92 ft | 40 km |
| BRADLEY CREEK NR PRAIRIE PLAINS, TN | flow 2.45 ft³/s | 40 km |
| USGS-03596100 | flow 3.00 ft³/s · STALE | 43 km |
| ELK RIVER NEAR PELHAM, TN | flow 5.99 ft³/s | 43 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
25 wells in 0 named aquifers:
Sites found: 25, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| USGS-352515086011702 | depth 30.5 ft · 2026-10-18 | 36 km |
| USGS-352420086024101 | depth 26.1 ft · 2025-10-14 | 39 km |
| USGS-352333086012801 | depth 36.5 ft · 2025-10-14 | 39 km |
| USGS-352342086021201 | depth 28.9 ft · 2025-12-03 | 39 km |
| USGS-352327086021701 | depth 26.8 ft · 2025-12-03 | 40 km |
| USGS-352326086021702 | depth 33.6 ft · 2025-12-03 | 40 km |
| USGS-352326086021703 | depth 33.6 ft · 2025-12-03 | 40 km |
| USGS-352331086023601 | depth 26.7 ft · 2025-12-03 | 40 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.32)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55
Banks & federal dollars #
$1.4 bn in deposits at 19 offices of 8 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,265, highly concentrated. $272.1 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $268.1 m, contracts $2.2 m), $21,842 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| The First National Bank of Middle Tennessee | $489.6 m · 35.4% share · 5 offices | |
| Security Federal Savings Bank of McMinnville | $327.6 m · 23.7% share · 3 offices | |
| Homeland Community Bank | $213.6 m · 15.5% share · 3 offices | |
| Warren, TN | $272.1 m FY2026 · $21,842/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $262.3 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| The First National Bank of Middle Tennessee | $489,612,000 | 35.4% | 5 |
| Security Federal Savings Bank of McMinnville | $327,579,000 | 23.7% | 3 |
| Homeland Community Bank | $213,597,000 | 15.5% | 3 |
| Citizens Tri-County Bank | $151,729,000 | 11.0% | 4 |
| Regions Bank | $117,040,000 | 8.5% | 1 |
| Coffee County Bank | $43,090,000 | 3.1% | 1 |
| U.S. Bank National Association | $37,260,000 | 2.7% | 1 |
| FSNB, National Association | $2,052,000 | 0.1% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 2,265 across 8 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 8 banks with deposits in the county = 35.4² + 23.7² + 15.5² + … (5 more) = 2,265
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $229,251,626 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $34,704,655 |
| Department of Agriculture | $2,821,694 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $1,734,514 |
| Department of Transportation | $1,375,107 |
| Department of Education | $1,134,800 |
| Department of Defense | $449,515 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $368,806 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $193,834 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $71,036 |
That is $21,842 per covered job, against 12,458 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $272.1 m / 12,458 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $21,842
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 17.95 | 2026-10-18 | -2.6% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.20 | 2026-10-19 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 7.00 | 2026-10-13 | +133.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 101.91 | 2026-10-14 | +1.0% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.40 | 2026-10-15 | +0.0% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 652,115.00 | 2026-09-01 | +0.7% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Warren County, TN: 13 findings, 1 at an alert level, 2 at a watch level and 10 noted
alertWarren County, TN's covered employment is -4.4% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -4.4 <= -3
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchWarren County, TN's covered employment is -4.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -4.4 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchWarren County, TN's price-to-rent ratio of 24.8 ranks 97th of 1,358 US counties, a watch level here: price-to-rent in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- test: priceToRent percentile = 92.92557111274871 >= 90
- typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month
position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level
noteWarren County, TN's average weekly wage was 5.0% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +5 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteWarren County, TN's covered employment was 4.4% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- -4.4 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.