Caldwell County, TX
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 29.83, -97.63.
Assembled 2026-10-19. Read the brief.
- 65th pct · 1,064th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 77th pct · 56th of 243 Texas counties · median $207,861
- 0th pct · 5th of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median $366,672
- 3rd pct · 2,943rd of 3,062 US counties · median +2.9%
- 8th pct · 223rd of 243 Texas counties · median +0.1%
- 0th pct · 5th of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median -4.6%
- 61st pct · 524th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 80th pct · 20th of 98 Texas counties · median $1,449
- 75th pct · 2nd of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median $1,625
- 56th pct · 1,396th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 64th pct · 90th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- 0th pct · 5th of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median 99,377
- 65th pct · 1,097th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 50th pct · 125th of 254 Texas counties · median $1,115
- 50th pct · 3rd of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median $1,120
- 62nd pct · 1,161st of 3,063 US counties · median 4.2
- 78th pct · 54th of 243 Texas counties · median 3.5
- 50th pct · 3rd of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median 4.8
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $280,021 (Sep 2026), -5.1% over one year, -1.6% over five
- 65th pct · 1,064th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 77th pct · 56th of 243 Texas counties · median $207,861
- 0th pct · 5th of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median $366,672
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Caldwell County, TX | $280,021 · -5.1% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $1,642/mo (Sep 2026), -1.7% over one year; price-to-rent 14.2
- 61st pct · 524th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 80th pct · 20th of 98 Texas counties · median $1,449
- 75th pct · 2nd of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median $1,625
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Caldwell County, TX | $1,642/mo · -1.7% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,551 a month on $280,021 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,853 a month: 32.0% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $280,021 × 80% = $224,017, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,551/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,120 × 52 / 12 = $4,853) = 32% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $280,021 / ($1,120 × 52) = 4.8
- price-to-rent = $280,021 / ($1,642 × 12) = 14.2
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
10,858 jobs at 896 employers (2026 Q1); -1.2% jobs and +6.0% average weekly wage over the year
- 56th pct · 1,396th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 64th pct · 90th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- 0th pct · 5th of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median 99,377
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Caldwell County, TX | 10,858 jobs · $1,120/wk · -1.2% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade | 1,613 | $766 | 1.52 | +0.7% |
| Health care and social assistance | 1,503 | $1,006 | 0.92 | -0.3% |
| Construction | 1,486 | $1,773 | 2.61 | -1.6% |
| Accommodation and food services | 1,157 | $494 | 1.19 | -20.4% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 569 | $1,480 | 1.24 | +8.2% |
| Manufacturing | 481 | $961 | 0.55 | -2.6% |
| Professional and technical services | 397 | $2,183 | 0.53 | +33.7% |
| Finance and insurance | 212 | $1,385 | 0.48 | -1.4% |
| Mining, oil and gas | 191 | $1,099 | 4.94 | -10.3% |
| Wholesale trade | 157 | $1,221 | 0.38 | -9.8% |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing | 156 | $868 | 1.99 | -0.6% |
| Educational services | 134 | $918 | 0.57 | +47.3% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D2 severe drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 15, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Canyon Lake | 97 % full · 379k ac-ft | 55 km |
| Lake Austin | 96 % full · 24k ac-ft | 56 km |
| Lake Travis | 94 % full · 1,098k ac-ft | 68 km |
| Lake Georgetown | 79 % full · 38k ac-ft | 93 km |
| Granger Lake | 99 % full · 52k ac-ft | 100 km |
| Lake Marble Falls | 97 % full · 8k ac-ft | 101 km |
| Lake L. B. Johnson | 99 % full · 113k ac-ft | 106 km |
| Somerville Lake | 89 % full · 150k ac-ft | 119 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.31)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.3×0.10 / 0.65
Banks & federal dollars #
$558.6 m in deposits at 7 offices of 6 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 3,095, highly concentrated. $240.3 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $230.4 m, grants $9.1 m), $22,135 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| First Lockhart Bank | $263.1 m · 47.1% share · 1 office | |
| Sage Capital Bank, | $122.6 m · 21.9% share · 2 offices | |
| Bank OZK | $100.3 m · 18.0% share · 1 office | |
| Caldwell, TX | $240.3 m FY2026 · $22,135/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $224.7 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Lockhart Bank | $263,061,000 | 47.1% | 1 |
| Sage Capital Bank, | $122,570,000 | 21.9% | 2 |
| Bank OZK | $100,310,000 | 18.0% | 1 |
| International Bank of Commerce | $33,915,000 | 6.1% | 1 |
| Citizens State Bank of Luling | $33,198,000 | 5.9% | 1 |
| First National Bank Texas | $5,543,000 | 1.0% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 3,095 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 47.1² + 21.9² + 18.0² + … (3 more) = 3,095
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $182,901,245 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $41,213,429 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $7,513,177 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $3,715,721 |
| Department of Agriculture | $2,580,947 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $1,461,089 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $1,182,746 |
| National Endowment for the Humanities | $60,000 |
| Department of Education | $27,072 |
| Small Business Administration | $0 |
| Department of Transportation | -$315,641 |
That is $22,135 per covered job, against 10,858 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $240.3 m / 10,858 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $22,135
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 17.95 | 2026-10-18 | -2.6% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.20 | 2026-10-19 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 7.00 | 2026-10-13 | +133.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 101.91 | 2026-10-14 | +1.0% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.40 | 2026-10-15 | +0.0% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 652,115.00 | 2026-09-01 | +0.7% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Caldwell County, TX: 17 findings, 1 at an alert level, 2 at a watch level and 14 noted
alertCaldwell County, TX's typical home value is -5.1% against a year earlier, an alert level here: typical home value at least 5 percent below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -5.130635297357502 <= -5
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchCaldwell County, TX's typical home value is -5.1% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -5.130635297357502 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
watchCaldwell County, TX's covered employment is -1.2% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -1.2 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
noteCaldwell County, TX's average weekly wage was 6.0% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteCaldwell County, TX's covered employment was 1.2% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- -1.2 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.