Medina County, TX

Home values #

Typical home $317,400 (Sep 2026), -2.3% over one year, +2.7% over five

• 73rd pct · 803rd of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 83rd pct · 40th of 243 Texas counties · median $207,861
• 42nd pct · 5th of 8 counties in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro · median $322,764

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,574/mo (Sep 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 16.8

• 55th pct · 609th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 67th pct · 33rd of 98 Texas counties · median $1,449
• 71st pct · 3rd of 8 counties in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro · median $1,474

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,758 a month on $317,400 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,325 a month: 40.7% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $317,400 × 80% = $253,920, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,758/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $998 × 52 / 12 = $4,325) = 41% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $317,400 / ($998 × 52) = 6.1
• price-to-rent = $317,400 / ($1,574 × 12) = 16.8

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

11,776 jobs at 910 employers (2026 Q1); +4.7% jobs and +5.3% average weekly wage over the year

• 58th pct · 1,337th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 66th pct · 87th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
• 28th pct · 6th of 8 counties in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro · median 17,217

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D2 severe drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

45 % of conservation capacity, weighted over 3 TWDB reservoirs

Sites found: 5, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

72 gauges · 0 flooding · 16 with quality panels averaging 92 % · 16 stale

Sites found: 72, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

28 wells in 2 named aquifers: Edwards-Trinity aquifer system, Other aquifers

Sites found: 28, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.42)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.3×0.55 + 0.2×0.08 / 0.85

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.1 bn in deposits at 14 offices of 7 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,403, highly concentrated. $421.6 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $367.6 m, grants $53.1 m), $35,798 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,403 across 7 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 7 banks with deposits in the county = 38.1² + 22.8² + 14.3² + … (4 more) = 2,403

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $35,798 per covered job, against 11,776 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $421.6 m / 11,776 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $35,798

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Medina County, TX: 11 findings, 1 at a watch level and 10 noted

1. watchMedina County, TX's typical home value is -2.3% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = -2.3456464157838117 < 0

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level

2. noteMedina County, TX's average weekly wage was 5.3% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +5.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

3. noteMedina County, TX's covered employment was 4.7% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +4.7 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

4. noteMedina County, TX's typical asking rent rose 1.3% from $1,554 in August 2026 to $1,574 in September 2026, on Zillow ZORI.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +1.3% = (1574.111111111111 - 1553.7718181767025) / 1553.7718181767025 × 100
   • 1574.111111111111 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-09
   • 1553.7718181767025 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08

5. noteMedina County, TX's covered employment of +4.7% ranks 1st of 8 counties in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro, against a median of -0.6%.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 100 on the 0-to-100 scale across 8 counties in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro that published jobs.yoy.emp

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

Read all 11 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.