Coconino County, AZ

Home values #

Typical home $618,865 (Sep 2026), +0.2% over one year, +22.5% over five

• 96th pct · 98th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 100th pct · 1st of 15 Arizona counties · median $335,772
• counties in the Flagstaff metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Flagstaff metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $2,128/mo (Sep 2026), -0.0% over one year; price-to-rent 24.2

• 87th pct · 164th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 100th pct · 1st of 13 Arizona counties · median $1,715
• counties in the Flagstaff metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Flagstaff metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $3,428 a month on $618,865 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,689 a month: 73.1% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $618,865 × 80% = $495,092, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $3,428/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,082 × 52 / 12 = $4,689) = 73% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $618,865 / ($1,082 × 52) = 11.0
• price-to-rent = $618,865 / ($2,128 × 12) = 24.2

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

63,448 jobs at 4,149 employers (2026 Q1); -4.5% jobs and +5.3% average weekly wage over the year

• 86th pct · 427th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 64th pct · 6th of 15 Arizona counties · median 33,459
• counties in the Flagstaff metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Flagstaff metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D0 abnormally dry

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

20 gauges · 0 flooding · 2 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 8 stale

Sites found: 20, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)

Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.00)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$2.4 bn in deposits at 18 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,556, moderately concentrated. $1.1 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $737.4 m, contracts $217.8 m), $17,838 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,556 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 21.2² + 20.3² + 15.4² + … (7 more) = 1,556

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $17,838 per covered job, against 63,448 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $1.1 bn / 63,448 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $17,838

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Coconino County, AZ: 17 findings, 1 at an alert level, 6 at a watch level and 10 noted

1. alertCoconino County, AZ's covered employment is -4.5% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -4.5 <= -3

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchCoconino County, AZ's years of wages of 11.0 ranks 53rd of 3,063 US counties, a watch level here: years of wages in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: yearsOfWages percentile = 98.30176355323317 >= 90
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level

3. watchCoconino County, AZ's covered employment is -4.5% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -4.5 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

4. watchCoconino County, AZ's price-to-rent ratio of 24.2 ranks 119th of 1,358 US counties, a watch level here: price-to-rent in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: priceToRent percentile = 91.30434782608695 >= 90
   • typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month

   position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level

5. watchCoconino County, AZ's years of wages is 11.0, a watch level here: typical home value worth 10 or more years of one average covered wage (typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52), one average covered job rather than a household; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: yearsOfWages = 10.999303196382808 >= 10
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52), one average covered job rather than a household; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.