Maricopa County, AZ

Home values #

Typical home $455,168 (Sep 2026), -0.9% over one year, +6.6% over five

• 91st pct · 272nd of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 85th pct · 3rd of 15 Arizona counties · median $335,772
• counties in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,715/mo (Sep 2026), +1.0% over one year; price-to-rent 22.1

• 66th pct · 458th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 50th pct · 7th of 13 Arizona counties · median $1,715
• counties in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $2,521 a month on $455,168 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $6,803 a month: 37.1% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $455,168 × 80% = $364,135, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $2,521/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,570 × 52 / 12 = $6,803) = 37% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $455,168 / ($1,570 × 52) = 5.6
• price-to-rent = $455,168 / ($1,715 × 12) = 22.1

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

2.30 m jobs at 140,725 employers (2026 Q1); -0.5% jobs and +3.9% average weekly wage over the year

• 99th pct · 5th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 100th pct · 1st of 15 Arizona counties · median 33,459
• counties in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D2 severe drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

2 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 2, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

46 gauges · 0 flooding · 11 with quality panels averaging 55 % · 27 stale

Sites found: 46, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

7 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 7, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.48)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.2×0.45 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$188.6 bn in deposits at 623 offices of 55 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,669, moderately concentrated. $56.2 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $41.1 bn, contracts $12.6 bn), $24,442 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,669 across 53 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 53 banks with deposits in the county = 27.3² + 20.2² + 16.2² + … (50 more) = 1,669

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $24,442 per covered job, against 2,297,478 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $56.2 bn / 2.30 m covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $24,442

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

Public companies #

80 public companies file with the SEC from a business address here (AVNET INC, FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC, CARVANA CO., and 77 more). The snapshot was pulled 2026-10-20; 68 of 80 carry financial facts. The county's jobs mix maps to 10 GICS sectors, led by Financials.

Snapshot pulled 2026-10-20: 80 filers, 68 with financial facts.

Public filers whose registered business address with the SEC falls in this county, from a committed snapshot of EDGAR's company_tickers_exchange file. A position is the centroid of the address's ZIP code (Census ZCTA) or, where the snapshot says so, of its city: it is not a building. Legal entities only - no officer, insider or shareholder data is read, and Forms 3, 4 and 5 are excluded everywhere. Sector exposure is the county's BLS QCEW jobs mix bridged to GICS sectors by a convention documented in lib/companies/sectors.ts; a jobs mix is not a portfolio.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Maricopa County, AZ: 13 findings, 3 at a watch level and 10 noted

1. watchMaricopa County, AZ's typical home value is -0.9% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = -0.8589468489732213 < 0

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level

2. watchMaricopa County, AZ's covered employment is -0.5% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.5 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchMaricopa County, AZ's momentum index of 0.10 scores 33 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 64 across Arizona counties, a gap of 31 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 31 = |33 across US counties - 64 across Arizona counties|
   • momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

4. noteMaricopa County, AZ's average weekly wage was 3.9% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +3.9 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

5. noteMaricopa County, AZ's covered employment was 0.5% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -0.5 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.