Bay County, MI

Home values #

Typical home $186,141 (Sep 2026), +6.5% over one year, +36.6% over five

• 32nd pct · 2,066th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 23rd pct · 64th of 83 Michigan counties · median $225,043
• counties in the Bay City metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Bay City metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,018/mo (Sep 2026), +2.5% over one year; price-to-rent 15.2

• 8th pct · 1,239th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 5th pct · 38th of 40 Michigan counties · median $1,387
• counties in the Bay City metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Bay City metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,031 a month on $186,141 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,866 a month: 21.2% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $186,141 × 80% = $148,913, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,031/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,123 × 52 / 12 = $4,866) = 21% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $186,141 / ($1,123 × 52) = 3.2
• price-to-rent = $186,141 / ($1,018 × 12) = 15.2

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

33,647 jobs at 2,134 employers (2026 Q1); -0.1% jobs and +1.8% average weekly wage over the year

• 78th pct · 681st of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 74th pct · 22nd of 83 Michigan counties · median 12,414
• counties in the Bay City metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Bay City metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D0 abnormally dry

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

30 gauges · 0 flooding · 2 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 4 stale

Sites found: 30, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

13 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 13, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.00)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.3 bn in deposits at 19 offices of 7 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,668, highly concentrated. $818.7 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $798.3 m, grants $18.0 m), $24,331 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,668 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 36.9² + 31.2² + 15.5² + … (3 more) = 2,668

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $24,331 per covered job, against 33,647 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $818.7 m / 33,647 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $24,331

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Bay County, MI: 11 findings, 2 at a watch level and 9 noted

1. watchBay County, MI's covered employment is -0.1% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.1 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

2. watchBay County, MI's momentum index of 0.30 scores 60 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 29 across Michigan counties, a gap of 31 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 31 = |60 across US counties - 29 across Michigan counties|
   • momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

3. noteBay County, MI's average weekly wage was 1.8% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +1.8 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

4. noteBay County, MI's typical asking rent rose 1.1% from $1,007 in August 2026 to $1,018 in September 2026, on Zillow ZORI.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +1.1% = (1017.9250000000001 - 1006.5855049634425) / 1006.5855049634425 × 100
   • 1017.9250000000001 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-09
   • 1006.5855049634425 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08

5. noteBay County, MI's typical home value rose 0.3% from $185,576 in August 2026 to $186,141 in September 2026, on Zillow ZHVI.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +0.3% = (186140.62517549095 - 185576.45868652943) / 185576.45868652943 × 100
   • 186140.62517549095 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-09
   • 185576.45868652943 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-08

Read all 11 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.