Trumbull County, OH

Home values #

Typical home $172,302 (Sep 2026), +6.6% over one year, +43.6% over five

• 25th pct · 2,269th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 16th pct · 74th of 88 Ohio counties · median $218,478
• counties in the Youngstown-Warren metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Youngstown-Warren metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $969/mo (Sep 2026), +4.2% over one year; price-to-rent 14.8

• 5th pct · 1,280th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 9th pct · 50th of 55 Ohio counties · median $1,340
• counties in the Youngstown-Warren metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Youngstown-Warren metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $954 a month on $172,302 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,554 a month: 21.0% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $172,302 × 80% = $137,841, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $954/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,051 × 52 / 12 = $4,554) = 21% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $172,302 / ($1,051 × 52) = 3.2
• price-to-rent = $172,302 / ($969 × 12) = 14.8

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

61,897 jobs at 4,326 employers (2026 Q1); -4.3% jobs and -0.7% average weekly wage over the year

• 86th pct · 436th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 79th pct · 19th of 88 Ohio counties · median 20,657
• counties in the Youngstown-Warren metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Youngstown-Warren metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

3 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 3, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

92 gauges · 0 flooding · 23 with quality panels averaging 99 % · 29 stale

Sites found: 92, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

62 wells in 3 named aquifers: Sand and gravel aquifers (glaciated regions), Mississippian aquifers, Pennsylvanian aquifers

Sites found: 62, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.00)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.01 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$3.9 bn in deposits at 38 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,138, highly concentrated. $1.4 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $1.3 bn, grants $49.8 m), $22,582 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,138 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 33.0² + 25.8² + 14.8² + … (7 more) = 2,138

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $22,582 per covered job, against 61,897 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $1.4 bn / 61,897 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $22,582

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Trumbull County, OH: 15 findings, 1 at an alert level, 2 at a watch level and 12 noted

1. alertTrumbull County, OH's covered employment is -4.3% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -4.3 <= -3

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchTrumbull County, OH's covered employment is -4.3% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -4.3 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchTrumbull County, OH's average weekly wage is -0.7% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -0.7 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

4. noteTrumbull County, OH's covered employment was 4.3% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -4.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

5. noteTrumbull County, OH's average weekly wage was 0.7% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -0.7 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.