Polk County, OR

Home values #

Typical home $475,672 (Sep 2026), +1.3% over one year, +15.0% over five

• 92nd pct · 238th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 74th pct · 10th of 36 Oregon counties · median $428,005
• counties in the Salem metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Salem metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,769/mo (Sep 2026), -0.2% over one year; price-to-rent 22.4

• 70th pct · 397th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 48th pct · 14th of 26 Oregon counties · median $1,770
• counties in the Salem metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Salem metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $2,635 a month on $475,672 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,598 a month: 57.3% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $475,672 × 80% = $380,538, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $2,635/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,061 × 52 / 12 = $4,598) = 57% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $475,672 / ($1,061 × 52) = 8.6
• price-to-rent = $475,672 / ($1,769 × 12) = 22.4

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

20,593 jobs at 2,150 employers (2026 Q1); -1.2% jobs and +5.4% average weekly wage over the year

• 71st pct · 905th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 57th pct · 16th of 36 Oregon counties · median 15,683
• counties in the Salem metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Salem metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D1 moderate drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

120 gauges · 0 flooding · 75 with quality panels averaging 99 % · 51 stale

Sites found: 120, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

25 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 25, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.16)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.2×0.01 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$807.6 m in deposits at 9 offices of 6 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,158, highly concentrated. $581.8 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $549.6 m, grants $30.5 m), $28,252 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,158 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 27.0² + 23.0² + 22.8² + … (3 more) = 2,158

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $28,252 per covered job, against 20,593 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $581.8 m / 20,593 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $28,252

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Polk County, OR: 10 findings, 3 at a watch level and 7 noted

1. watchPolk County, OR's years of wages of 8.6 ranks 156th of 3,063 US counties, a watch level here: years of wages in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: yearsOfWages percentile = 94.9379490529066 >= 90
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level

2. watchPolk County, OR's covered employment is -1.2% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -1.2 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchPolk County, OR's typical home value of +1.3% scores 32 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 66 across Oregon counties, a gap of 33 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 33 = |32 across US counties - 66 across Oregon counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

4. notePolk County, OR's average weekly wage was 5.4% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +5.4 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

5. notePolk County, OR's covered employment was 1.2% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -1.2 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 10 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.