Frederick County, MD
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 39.47, -77.40.
Assembled 2026-10-19. Read the brief.
- 93rd pct · 206th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 82nd pct · 5th of 24 Maryland counties · median $417,647
- 40th pct · 14th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $562,284
- 18th pct · 2,503rd of 3,062 US counties · median +2.9%
- 21st pct · 19th of 24 Maryland counties · median +0.8%
- 22nd pct · 18th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median +1.6%
- 89th pct · 140th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 66th pct · 8th of 22 Maryland counties · median $1,875
- 42nd pct · 13th of 22 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $2,255
- 91st pct · 289th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 73rd pct · 7th of 24 Maryland counties · median 44,580
- 68th pct · 8th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 38,075
- 89th pct · 350th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 69th pct · 8th of 24 Maryland counties · median $1,216
- 54th pct · 11th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $1,341
- 87th pct · 385th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.2
- 73rd pct · 7th of 24 Maryland counties · median 5.8
- 40th pct · 14th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 7.1
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $494,258 (Sep 2026), -0.4% over one year, +18.0% over five
- 93rd pct · 206th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 82nd pct · 5th of 24 Maryland counties · median $417,647
- 40th pct · 14th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $562,284
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Frederick County, MD | $494,258 · -0.4% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $2,179/mo (Sep 2026), +2.8% over one year; price-to-rent 18.9
- 89th pct · 140th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 66th pct · 8th of 22 Maryland counties · median $1,875
- 42nd pct · 13th of 22 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $2,255
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Frederick County, MD | $2,179/mo · +2.8% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $2,738 a month on $494,258 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $6,023 a month: 45.5% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $494,258 × 80% = $395,406, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $2,738/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,390 × 52 / 12 = $6,023) = 45% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $494,258 / ($1,390 × 52) = 6.8
- price-to-rent = $494,258 / ($2,179 × 12) = 18.9
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
104,031 jobs at 7,741 employers (2026 Q1); -3.3% jobs and -1.8% average weekly wage over the year
- 91st pct · 289th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 73rd pct · 7th of 24 Maryland counties · median 44,580
- 68th pct · 8th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 38,075
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Frederick County, MD | 104,031 jobs · $1,390/wk · -3.3% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade | 14,577 | $823 | 1.44 | -1.2% |
| Health care and social assistance | 13,249 | $1,200 | 0.85 | -0.1% |
| Accommodation and food services | 10,249 | $539 | 1.10 | +2.2% |
| Construction | 9,223 | $1,558 | 1.69 | -6.7% |
| Professional and technical services | 9,199 | $2,151 | 1.28 | -7.1% |
| Manufacturing | 5,757 | $1,616 | 0.69 | -1.0% |
| Other services | 4,976 | $1,031 | 1.60 | +17.5% |
| Administrative and waste services | 4,714 | $1,098 | 0.80 | -1.4% |
| Wholesale trade | 2,585 | $1,963 | 0.65 | -8.5% |
| Finance and insurance | 2,535 | $3,268 | 0.60 | -29.6% |
| Educational services | 2,269 | $821 | 1.01 | -1.4% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 1,483 | $1,038 | 0.34 | -13.2% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D1 moderate drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.25)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 / 0.35
Banks & federal dollars #
$6.6 bn in deposits at 58 offices of 15 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,369, moderately concentrated. $3.1 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $1.5 bn, contracts $1.5 bn), $29,977 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| PNC Bank, National Association | $1.8 bn · 26.7% share · 11 offices | |
| Truist Bank | $1.1 bn · 16.1% share · 10 offices | |
| Bank of America, National Association | $772.5 m · 11.7% share · 4 offices | |
| Frederick, MD | $3.1 bn FY2026 · $29,977/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $1.5 bn · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| PNC Bank, National Association | $1,765,929,000 | 26.7% | 11 |
| Truist Bank | $1,062,978,000 | 16.1% | 10 |
| Bank of America, National Association | $772,523,000 | 11.7% | 4 |
| Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company | $503,872,000 | 7.6% | 6 |
| Atlantic Union Bank | $476,995,000 | 7.2% | 3 |
| Woodsboro Bank | $445,859,000 | 6.7% | 5 |
| Middletown Valley Bank | $430,220,000 | 6.5% | 4 |
| Capital One, National Association | $295,483,000 | 4.5% | 2 |
| ACNB Bank | $289,515,000 | 4.4% | 4 |
| First United Bank & Trust | $258,559,000 | 3.9% | 3 |
Deposit concentration is 1,369 across 15 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 15 banks with deposits in the county = 26.7² + 16.1² + 11.7² + … (12 more) = 1,369
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $1,259,183,479 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $971,602,940 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $329,357,637 |
| Department of Defense | $292,652,553 |
| Department of Homeland Security | $99,085,356 |
| Department of Transportation | $54,313,177 |
| Department of Commerce | $36,939,481 |
| Environmental Protection Agency | $23,998,313 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $23,992,702 |
| Department of Education | $16,355,423 |
| Department of Agriculture | $11,402,058 |
| General Services Administration | $9,764,864 |
That is $29,977 per covered job, against 104,031 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $3.1 bn / 104,031 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $29,977
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 17.95 | 2026-10-18 | -2.6% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.20 | 2026-10-19 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 7.00 | 2026-10-13 | +133.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 101.91 | 2026-10-14 | +1.0% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.40 | 2026-10-15 | +0.0% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 652,115.00 | 2026-09-01 | +0.7% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Frederick County, MD: 16 findings, 1 at an alert level, 4 at a watch level and 11 noted
alertFrederick County, MD's covered employment is -3.3% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.3 <= -3
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchFrederick County, MD's covered employment is -3.3% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.3 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchFrederick County, MD's average weekly wage is -1.8% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -1.8 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchFrederick County, MD's typical home value is -0.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -0.38362519359820646 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
watchFrederick County, MD's momentum index is -0.34, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- test: momentum = -0.34464479276431936 <= -0.25
- momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.