Warren County, VA
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 38.91, -78.21.
Assembled 2026-10-19. Read the brief.
- 85th pct · 440th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 73rd pct · 36th of 133 Virginia counties · median $309,231
- 0th pct · 23rd of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $562,284
- 51st pct · 1,475th of 3,062 US counties · median +2.9%
- 53rd pct · 62nd of 133 Virginia counties · median +2.8%
- 77th pct · 6th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median +1.6%
- 84th pct · 218th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 64th pct · 26th of 71 Virginia counties · median $1,806
- 23rd pct · 17th of 22 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $2,255
- 60th pct · 1,261st of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 62nd pct · 50th of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944
- 18th pct · 19th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 38,075
- 53rd pct · 1,492nd of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 50th pct · 66th of 133 Virginia counties · median $1,048
- 9th pct · 21st of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $1,341
- 89th pct · 308th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.2
- 79th pct · 28th of 133 Virginia counties · median 5.4
- 54th pct · 11th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 7.1
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $394,470 (Sep 2026), +3.0% over one year, +28.0% over five
- 85th pct · 440th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 73rd pct · 36th of 133 Virginia counties · median $309,231
- 0th pct · 23rd of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $562,284
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, VA | $394,470 · +3.0% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $2,004/mo (Sep 2026), +0.7% over one year; price-to-rent 16.4
- 84th pct · 218th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 64th pct · 26th of 71 Virginia counties · median $1,806
- 23rd pct · 17th of 22 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $2,255
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, VA | $2,004/mo · +0.7% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $2,185 a month on $394,470 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,572 a month: 47.8% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $394,470 × 80% = $315,576, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $2,185/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,055 × 52 / 12 = $4,572) = 48% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $394,470 / ($1,055 × 52) = 7.2
- price-to-rent = $394,470 / ($2,004 × 12) = 16.4
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
12,773 jobs at 1,187 employers (2026 Q1); -1.6% jobs and -0.9% average weekly wage over the year
- 60th pct · 1,261st of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 62nd pct · 50th of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944
- 18th pct · 19th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 38,075
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, VA | 12,773 jobs · $1,055/wk · -1.6% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade | 1,887 | $739 | 1.52 | +20.0% |
| Health care and social assistance | 1,551 | $1,127 | 0.81 | +1.7% |
| Manufacturing | 1,317 | $1,496 | 1.28 | -6.1% |
| Accommodation and food services | 1,307 | $475 | 1.14 | -3.3% |
| Educational services | 776 | $739 | 2.82 | +0.4% |
| Construction | 719 | $1,244 | 1.07 | +1.1% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 689 | $1,195 | 1.28 | -36.0% |
| Administrative and waste services | 650 | $1,095 | 0.90 | -6.1% |
| Other services | 468 | $797 | 1.23 | +0.4% |
| Professional and technical services | 353 | $1,585 | 0.40 | -4.1% |
| Finance and insurance | 261 | $1,324 | 0.50 | +7.4% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 190 | $433 | 0.90 | -5.9% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D0 abnormally dry
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
3 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight
Sites found: 3, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| JENNINGS RANDOLPH LAKE NEAR ELK GARDEN, WV | 1,460 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 98 km |
| SAVAGE RIVER RESERVOIR NEAR BLOOMINGTON, MD | 1,447 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 104 km |
| DEEP CREEK LAKE NEAR THAYERVILLE, MD | 2,458 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 115 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
124 gauges · 0 flooding · 29 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 27 stale
Sites found: 124, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| S F SHENANDOAH RIVER AT FRONT ROYAL, VA | flow 845.0 ft³/s · observation not current | 1 km |
| Happy Creek at Front Royal | no readings | 2 km |
| CROOKED RUN BELOW HWY 340 AT RIVERTON, VA | flow 16.0 ft³/s · STALE | 5 km |
| MANASSAS RUN AT RT 645 NEAR FRONT ROYAL, VA | flow 2.20 ft³/s · STALE | 7 km |
| PASSAGE CREEK NEAR BUCKTON, VA | flow 17.7 ft³/s · no flooding | 8 km |
| GOONEY RUN NEAR GLEN ECHO, VA | flow 1.10 ft³/s · STALE | 8 km |
| WEST RUN AT MIDDLETOWN, VA | stage 4.03 ft · quality 100 % (1) · STALE | 9 km |
| N F SHENANDOAH RIVER NEAR STRASBURG, VA | flow 367.0 ft³/s · quality 100 % (5) · no flooding | 13 km |
| CEDAR CREEK ABOVE HWY 11 NEAR MIDDLETOWN, VA | flow 18.0 ft³/s · STALE | 14 km |
| CEDAR CREEK NEAR WINCHESTER, VA | flow 29.3 ft³/s · no flooding | 22 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
38 wells in 0 named aquifers:
Sites found: 38, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| USGS-385257078081301 | depth 74.9 ft · 2010-10-03 | 7 km |
| USGS-385755078100601 | depth 119.5 ft · 2010-10-03 | 7 km |
| USGS-385140078163401 | depth 39.3 ft · 2026-10-18 | 8 km |
| USGS-385912078112401 | depth 100.0 ft · 2009-10-07 | 9 km |
| USGS-390226078170601 | depth 57.0 ft · 2009-09-20 | 16 km |
| USGS-390328078061201 | depth 30.9 ft · 2011-02-06 | 19 km |
| USGS-390348078035501 | depth 44.3 ft · 2026-10-18 | 21 km |
| USGS-385602078271201 | depth 61.5 ft · 2026-10-18 | 21 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.00)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55
Banks & federal dollars #
$848.7 m in deposits at 10 offices of 7 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,953, highly concentrated. $274.1 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $247.0 m, contracts $25.0 m), $21,463 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| United Bank | $211.4 m · 24.9% share · 2 offices | |
| Truist Bank | $202.2 m · 23.8% share · 1 office | |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $179.1 m · 21.1% share · 2 offices | |
| Warren, VA | $274.1 m FY2026 · $21,463/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $246.6 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Bank | $211,413,000 | 24.9% | 2 |
| Truist Bank | $202,218,000 | 23.8% | 1 |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $179,072,000 | 21.1% | 2 |
| First Bank | $117,390,000 | 13.8% | 2 |
| Atlantic Union Bank | $78,460,000 | 9.2% | 1 |
| City National Bank of West Virginia | $55,617,000 | 6.6% | 1 |
| Woodforest National Bank | $4,567,000 | 0.5% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 1,953 across 7 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 7 banks with deposits in the county = 24.9² + 23.8² + 21.1² + … (4 more) = 1,953
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $208,999,666 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $36,595,254 |
| Department of Homeland Security | $13,425,162 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $5,733,333 |
| Department of Defense | $2,255,138 |
| Smithsonian Institution | $1,978,691 |
| Department of Transportation | $1,713,228 |
| Department of Justice | $1,525,004 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $998,939 |
| Department of Agriculture | $761,404 |
| Department of the Interior | $112,372 |
| Department of Commerce | $38,500 |
That is $21,463 per covered job, against 12,773 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $274.1 m / 12,773 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $21,463
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 17.95 | 2026-10-18 | -2.6% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.20 | 2026-10-19 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 7.00 | 2026-10-13 | +133.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 101.91 | 2026-10-14 | +1.0% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.40 | 2026-10-15 | +0.0% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 652,115.00 | 2026-09-01 | +0.7% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Warren County, VA: 13 findings, 3 at a watch level and 10 noted
watchWarren County, VA's covered employment is -1.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -1.6 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchWarren County, VA's average weekly wage is -0.9% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -0.9 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchWarren County, VA's typical asking rent is -1.2% against the previous month, a watch level here: typical asking rent at least 1 percent below the previous month (arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- test: rent.momPct = -1.2247930062275219 <= -1
- month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns
arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
noteWarren County, VA's covered employment was 1.6% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- -1.6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteWarren County, VA's typical asking rent fell 1.2% from $2,029 in August 2026 to $2,004 in September 2026, on Zillow ZORI.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- -1.2% = (2004.1865079365077 - 2029.038023745034) / 2029.038023745034 × 100
- 2004.1865079365077 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-09
- 2029.038023745034 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.