Lawrence County, MO

Home values #

Typical home $205,738 (Sep 2026), +1.7% over one year, +32.6% over five

• 40th pct · 1,830th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 44th pct · 63rd of 113 Missouri counties · median $221,167

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,012/mo (Sep 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 16.9

• 8th pct · 1,244th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 26th pct · 26th of 35 Missouri counties · median $1,229

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,140 a month on $205,738 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $3,987 a month: 28.6% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $205,738 × 80% = $164,590, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,140/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $920 × 52 / 12 = $3,987) = 29% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $205,738 / ($920 × 52) = 4.3
• price-to-rent = $205,738 / ($1,012 × 12) = 16.9

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

9,197 jobs at 989 employers (2026 Q1); +2.5% jobs and +3.7% average weekly wage over the year

• 52nd pct · 1,519th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 67th pct · 38th of 115 Missouri counties · median 4,996

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D3 extreme drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

3 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 3, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

34 gauges · 0 flooding · 1 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 8 stale

Sites found: 34, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

35 wells in 1 named aquifer: Ozark Plateaus aquifer system

Sites found: 35, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.48)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.75 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$826.2 m in deposits at 11 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,606, moderately concentrated. $253.3 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $229.7 m, grants $23.3 m), $27,546 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,606 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 26.1² + 17.4² + 15.9² + … (7 more) = 1,606

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $27,546 per covered job, against 9,197 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $253.3 m / 9,197 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $27,546

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Lawrence County, MO: 9 findings, 3 at a watch level and 6 noted

1. watchLawrence County, MO's typical asking rent is -3.7% against the previous month, a watch level here: typical asking rent at least 1 percent below the previous month (arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: rent.momPct = -3.6701140954948204 <= -1
   • month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns

   arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchLawrence County, MO's typical asking rent fell 3.7% from $1,051 in August 2026 to $1,012 in September 2026, on Zillow ZORI.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -3.7% = (1012.3333333333334 - 1050.9026599874633) / 1050.9026599874633 × 100
   • 1012.3333333333334 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-09
   • 1050.9026599874633 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08

3. watchLawrence County, MO's average weekly wage of $920 scores 23 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 59 across Missouri counties, a gap of 36 points.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 36 = |23 across US counties - 59 across Missouri counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

4. noteLawrence County, MO's average weekly wage was 3.7% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +3.7 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

5. noteLawrence County, MO's covered employment was 2.5% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +2.5 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 9 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.